KIRGHIZIA: "TULIP REVOLUTION"
HAS DEVOURED ITS CHILDREN. Part II

In fact, the "tulip revolution" that the USA interpreted as an outstanding victory of democracy (George Bush has put it in the same line with the Georgian "revolution of roses", Ukrainian "orange revolution" and the "cedar revolution" in the neighboring Middle-Eastern Lebanon) has just created the preconditions for restoring the medieval order in Kirghizia. New authorities were much more savage towards their political adversaries than Askar Akayev, who was overthrown in 2005 and was accused of "suppressing the freedom".

Continuation. The beginning was given here: http://www.win.ru/en/school/4224.phtml

Successor of the "Khan" throne

In fact, the "tulip revolution" that the USA interpreted as an outstanding victory of democracy (George Bush has put it in the same line with the Georgian "revolution of roses", Ukrainian "orange revolution" and the "cedar revolution" in the neighboring Middle-Eastern Lebanon) has just created the preconditions for restoring the medieval order in Kirghizia. New authorities were much more savage towards their political adversaries rather than Askar Akayev, who was overthrown in 2005 and was accused of "suppressing the freedom".

Opposition reproached Bakieyv-elder with the fact that he wanted Maxim Bakiyev to replace him without any elections. And these accusations weren’t that much groundless. During last two years Kurmanbek Bakiyev was really "customizing" the governmental system for his son, who, frankly speaking, had no public management experience at all. Since the end of October, last year 32-year-old Maxim Bakiyev has been holding a post at the head of the state Central agency for development, investments and innovations, which allowed him to control the most part of the cash flows in the country. Maxim Bakiyev was "sitting atop" of the special foundation, including Russian credits, American financial aid and other foreign investments that — due to the terms of the issuing bodies — were to be invested into the industry.

Apart from it, he was famous for "brute forcing" the private businesses and raiding the enterprises he liked. It’s no accident that in the country he was dubbed "the evil genius of the Kirghiz-style privatization". And, which is quite characteristic, one of the rebel’s slogans sounded like "Max, take your gang and get out to the West!"

Despite the fact that his mother is Russian, it’d be hard to suspect Maxim Bakiyev of being a Russophile. Since his first political steps he has proved that all of his deeds would feature just the same kind of motivation his father used to be guided by. Namely, this is the decision-making that depends from the partner’s willingness to allot the funds — at that, it’s not so important, for which project are they to be allotted for. The best example, displaying the manager’s qualities and world-view peculiarities of Maxim Bakiyev is the project of construction of such ambitious facility as Kambaratinsk Hydroelectric Station — official Bishkek believed that its construction was to solve all the material problems of the country.

Iranians and Kazakhs also participated in its construction to some extent but that wasn’t enough to bring such large-scale project to life. That’s why Kirghiz government asked Russia of the financial aid.

Last year Moscow allotted the first party of the funds in the amount of $150 million to Bishkek as a direct gratuitous aid and issued the first part of the credit ($300 million) on the favorable conditions.

In the current year Moscow, however, abstained from rendering $1.7 billion credit to Bishkek. To a great many senses, that was conditioned on the misapplication of the previously allotted funds (they got into the Kirghizia Development Foundation that was headed by Bakiyev-junior) and procrastinations with passing 51% of shares of this enterprise.

Bishkek was trying to explain Moscow that it was done this way in order "not to let the inflation eat up all that money". Of course, such lame excuses were not good enough for Russia. As a response to that, offended Maxim Bakiyev — who was dealing with numerous issues of Kirghiz politics by the moment — decided to replace Russia with China.

But he has done it in such awkward and ignorant way that he only managed to scare the Chinese away. He has openly and publicly offered them to replace Russia in that project. This offer, however, didn’t cause anything but the bewilderment of the Chinese side. They’ve just smiled in response...and have politely refused. First of all, this demonstrative and showy manner is not the way the business is made, and, second of all, China was unwilling to aggravate its relationship with Russia over such insignificant matter as Kambaratinsk Hydroelectric Station.

Thus, there was nobody to replace Russia with. Americans, having seen the Bakiyev’s lack of reliability, also weren’t striving to issue a credit to them.

Economic "boom" after the "tulip revolution"

Oppositionists that replaced Akayev didn’t make any serious economic reforms, apart from the redistribution of property. Privatization — that started during the rule of the previous president — has reached its apogee during the rule of Bakiyev. It touched every single thing that might have posed any interest for the business and, first of all, for the Bakiyev’s "family". Certainly, the most profitable energetic enterprises and the objects of state property were to be distributed first. Curiously enough, at the instigation of his father, major part of the cash flows was staying in the pocket of Maxim Bakiyev.

People’s wrath was maturing for a long time. At the background of southern Bakiyev’s clan that was getting wealthier and wealthier, the rest of the country was coming to ruin. Perhaps, if not for the world financial crisis, Bakiyev’s clan would have continued to rule the country for the expense of the foreign aid. But alas — the aid didn’t come — and the regime collapsed.

We should mention though, that even during Askar Akayev’s rule, to a large extent Kirghizia was living for the account of foreign grants. The country was the CIS "champion" in the sense of spreading the NGOs that existed at the account of foreign aid, gathered from the western taxpayers. In that sense, Kirghizia has outstripped even Georgia and the Ukraine. Quite indicative is that all of these organizations, i. e. the western cash flows, were controlled by the state officials.

However, now people prefer not to recall that. Crisis is under way now and the foreign cash flows coming into the country have decreased dramatically. That’s why the fight of the elites for the rest of the scarce resources is aggravating.

One of the most important state income items were the money transfers from labor migrants, working in Russia and Kazakhstan. Now — due to the world financial crisis — the amount of these transfers has decreased. Most part of the Kirghiz seasonal workers were occupied at the construction business — the very first sector that was hit by the crisis.

But even the spheres where Kirghizia might have been collecting significant dividends were stagnating. Take, for example, major gold deposit in Kumtor. It seems that in conditions of the increasing gold prices all over the world, Bishkek should have been getting significant funds from its exploitation. Weirdly enough, Kirghizia was making very scarce incomes on it. Mind that Bishkek was unable to develop it independently — without a foreign support. Thus, at first it were Englishmen and then Canadians who came here with their investments. Their work didn’t work out well, though: both of them started to complain about the corruption that was very common among the Kirghiz officials — it impeded their business.

People’s wrath

During Bakiyev rule, nation was living in a one world and the power-holders — in another one. Here’s the characteristic example: in the end of this year government proclaimed the five to ten-fold increase of the price for the housing and communal services. And the last drop that ran over the cup of the people’s patience was the extra increasing of the gas price. Authorities were explaining such abrupt increase of the price for the services by the need to attract new investments into the economics. Common people, at the same time, considered that the government was just shifting its responsibilities to them and trying to drive them hard.

For the common citizens the situation was aggravated by the fact that at the same time the authorities have started an administrative reform, intended to consolidate President’s power and weaken the Prime Minister’s one. Lately, Bakiyev was sequentially and purposefully weakening his positions: he took the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Security Service out of his control, having transferred them into the structure of the President’s institute. Kurmanbek Bakiyev wasn’t satisfied with that, though: in February he made a public speech, saying that he is going to completely eliminate the Prime Minister’s post.

Besides that, Bakiyev-elder expressed his wish to change the Constitution. At that, he was going to do it in such way so the President might have been elected not via the nationwide elections but rather at the State Council. This could have allowed him to keep the power in the country even further.

It’s quite interesting that not so long time ago a Kurultay1 took place in Kirghizia. There Bakiyev made a public speech, putting forth an initiative to impose the quotas for governmental presence for different tribes, according to the "historical traditions" of the Kirghiz nation. I shall remind you that historically Kirghizia was represented by the permanent competition between the conflicting North and South — the latter, in its turn, were torn apart by the tribal and clannish discords.

Thus, Bakiyev was trying to distract the nation — which was getting very dissatisfied — from the vital problems and the increase of the price for housing and communal service was the most principal of them.

Authorities have dug the grave for themselves

So the blood was spilled and the situation with Akayev’s overthrowing repeated once again — with only difference being the face that Akayev refused to use the weapons against the oppositionists unlike the current authorities.

It seemed that as far back as in the end of 2009 Bakiyev clan has managed to crush the opposition. The April of 2010 has shown that it wasn’t so, however. It turned out that putting the most prominent oppositionists to jail didn’t led to the desired results and that it failed to calm down the boiling people’s wrath. Due to their own greed and incompetence, the authorities have dug the grave for themselves.

So what awaits this country in the future? Kirghizia is the only country of the five Middle Asian republics, whose future development is hardly predictable at all. A lot of things would depend from what countries would the future authorities decide to cooperate with. Bakiyev’s family was accusing the Russian powers of the opposition support. Certainly, the statements that Russian media were about to unleash an informational war against Bishkek are too unrealistic to be taken seriously. Besides that, the USA also weren’t protesting that much against the actions of the opposition, which is indicative of their possible interest in the change of the corrupted Bakiyev’s regime.

Anyway, change of power would hardly lead to the deep changes in the disastrous state of the Kirghiz nation. As the life shows us, in the East, and especially in the Middle Asia (including Kirghizia) powers that come to replace the old despots start to copy their style in no time.

By Sergey Balmasov